Climate Change - Impacts

If the magnitude of global warming is consistent with the mid- or upper-range of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) simulations, serious and damaging societal and ecological impacts are likely to result. Higher latitudes are predicted to see greater temperature increases than lower latitudes, especially during winter and spring. The IPCC predicts rising sea levels, increased rainfall rates and heavy precipitation events (especially over the higher latitudes) and higher evaporation rates that would accelerate the drying of soils following rain events. With higher sea levels, coastal regions could face increased wind and flood damage, and some models predict an increase the intensity of tropical storms. 


Regional and state impacts are harder to predict than large regional or global impacts.  Regional models indicate these possible impacts in Arkansas: 

• As climate changes, some plants and animals could go extinct, some could decline or increase in population, and others migrate to areas with more favorable conditions.  For example, fish that need colder temperatures to survive could migrate north, while varieties tolerant of warmer waters could move into Arkansas rivers.          
• Diseases and pests that thrive in warmer climates could spread into Arkansas, such as the West Nile virus that used to be confined to the Mid-East and only recently has spread to the United States.           
• Crops and trees that need cooler climates may not grow as well, while more tropical varieties might do better. The forestry industry and forest ecosystems could change as temperatures increase.             
• More severe storms and droughts could affect crop production, pests and growth rates.

Even if global average temperature increases in the year 2100 are in the lower-range of the IPCC scenarios, the models project ongoing increases in temperatures and sea levels well beyond the end of this century. Thus the eventual impacts may be delayed but not avoided. 

For more information on climate change impacts at the national and international levels, see:
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
National Research Council, Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001)
Center for Health and the Global Environment, Climate Change Futures: Health, Ecological, and Economic Dimensions, Harvard Medical School, November 2005
William Schlesinger, Duke University, Testimony before Legislative Commission on Global Climate Change, 2/3/06